World View: Indian Mujahideen Suspected in Bombing in Hyderabad

This morning’s key headlines from

  • Indian Mujahideen suspected in bombing in Hyderabad
  • Indian Mujahideen linked to Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Toiba
  • Stock market has ‘mini-panic’ over Fed QE signal
  • The Fed’s falling inflation expectations
  • Mainstream economists’ failing recovery forecasts

Indian Mujahideen suspected in bombing in Hyderabad

Bomb site in Hyderabad (AP)

Bomb site in Hyderabad (AP)

Two terrorist bombings killed 13 people and injured dozens others in a

crowded marketplace in Hyderabad in India. No one has yet claimed

responsibility, but terrorist group Indian Mujahideen (IM) is

suspected. India’s security establishment is coming under criticism

for ignoring the interrogation of an IM operative in Delhi in October.

The interrogation revealed three planned sites for terror attacks, one

of which was Thursday’s Hyderabad site.

DNA India and Times of India

Indian Mujahideen linked to Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Toiba

The Indian Mujahideen (IM) was founded by Abdul Subhan Usman Qureshi,

who had come from an economically privileged background. and was

educated at a school run by a Christian missionary in Mumbai. Anger

at the mainstream media is cited by IM cadres as a motivator. It is

argued that the mainstream media turns a blind eye to Hindu

fundamentalist groups while mostly linking the fundamental nature of

Islam to terrorism. IM is closely linked to Pakistan’s

Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), which supplies weapons and direction to IM. An

objective of IM is to tie up India’s security forces in India, giving

LeT a free hand. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)

Stock market has ‘mini-panic’ over Fed QE signal

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January 29-30 meeting were

released on Wednesday, and they “hinted” that some people at the Fed

were getting concerned about the massive amount of money that the Fed

is “printing” each month. There was a time, before 2008, when $60

billion dollars of one-time fiscal or monetary stimulus would have

been considered an astronomical amount, and would have triggered

national debate. But those days are long gone. For the last year or

so, the Fed has been using quantitative easing to inject $85 billion

dollars of monetary stimulus EVERY MONTH. The result was a kind

of two-day “mini-panic” in the stock market.

I listen to the financial people on CNBC and Bloomberg TV — as much

as I can stand them — and there’s really no longer any pretense that

the stock market represents anything real anymore. Everyone knows

that the $85 billion in monthly stimulus hasn’t help any ordinary

people or small businesses. Instead, it goes to the investment banks

and into the stock markets, so that the bankers can continue to pay

themselves multi-million dollar bonuses and kick the money back into

Obama campaign contributions. So when the Fed hinted that the $85

billion might be cut back, the stock market mini-panic began. Bloomberg

The Fed’s falling inflation expectations

If the Fed had “printed” $85 billion per month of new money in the

70s, 80s or 90s, then inflation would have skyrocketed. But those

days are past. As Alan Greenspan has pointed out, every single

standard macroeconomic model has been completely wrong since 2007.

The reason they’ve been wrong is that they’re based on data from the

70s, 80s and 90s, when the Silent Generation was in charge. Today,

the Gen-Xers and the Boomers are in charge, and the culture

is now one of fraud, extortion, and screwing people. Today’s

culture is like the 1930s, and the only macroeconomic models

that will work should be base on 1930s data.

The Fed puts out a regular report on “inflation expections” — how

much they expect inflation to rise in the current year, in the

following year, and in each year for the next ten years. Unfortunately,

the Fed’s inflation forecasts have been abysmally wrong, year after

year. Here’s a chart of the Fed’s inflation expectations as of

February in each of the three past years:

Fed 'Inflation Expectations' in Feb '11, Feb '12, and Feb '13 (Marcus Nunes)

Fed ‘Inflation Expectations’ in Feb ’11, Feb ’12, and Feb ’13 (Marcus Nunes)

There are two interesting things about the above chart. One is

that the Fed’s inflation expectations have been falling each year,

reflecting the fact that inflation itself has been falling.

The second interesting thing is that the Fed’s models have been wrong

every year in exactly the same way. Each year they predict a brief

period of falling inflation, then a period of rising inflation. Instead,

inflation keeps falling, and expectations keep falling.

Since 2003, I have been writing that, in this generational Crisis era,

our economy is in a deflationary spiral. Since 2003, mainstream

economists have been predicting that there would be inflation or

hyperinflation the following year. They’ve been wrong every, and I’ve

been right. Marcus Nunes

Mainstream economists’ failing recovery forecasts

Mainstream economists are always predicting that prosperity is just

around the corner, so that people will buy their stocks or bonds or

whatever. Each month, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts

when there will be a full economic recovery. The Economic Policy

Institute has done a study of the CBO forecasts for the last four

years, and found that they have failed in exactly the same sort

of way that the Fed’s inflation forecasts had failed.

Here’s a chart of the CBO recovery predictions for January of each

of the last few years:


CBO forecasts of full economic recovery, Jan '08, Jan '09, Jan '10, Jan '11, Jan '12, and Feb '13. (Economic Policy Institute)

CBO forecasts of full economic recovery, Jan ’08, Jan ’09, Jan ’10, Jan ’11, Jan ’12, and Feb ’13. (Economic Policy Institute)

So, in Jan 2008, the were project full recovery by 2011. By Jan 2011,

it would be 2016. And the latest projection, from February of this

year, puts the forecast of full economic recovery at 2018.

As I’ve written many, many times, mainstream economists have no clue

about what’s going on. They didn’t predict, and can’t explain, the

tech bubble of the 1990s, the real estate bubble, the credit bubble,

the credit crunch of 2007, the collapse of 2008, they had no idea what

was going to happen in 2012, and they don’t have the vaguest clue

what’s going to happen in the next year. Unfortunately, with the

Gen-Xers increasingly in charge, the worst is yet to come. Washington Post and Economic Policy Institute

Permanent web link to this article

Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

World View: Indian Mujahideen Suspected in Bombing in Hyderabad

Leave a Reply